OPEC predicts oil will remain most demanded fuel until 2045

DUBAI (TASS): September 28. Oil will remain the most consumed fuel in the long term, despite the growing share of renewable energy sources (RES), although its share in global consumption will decline. This conclusion follows from the published today OPEC’s long-term forecast World Oil Outlook (WOO).
In 2020, oil accounted for 30% of global energy consumption, according to the report. By 2025, it will grow to 31% amid recovery in demand after the pandemic. However, after that, the demand for oil will face challenges from alternative energy sources, which will lead to a reduction in the share of oil in the global energy balance to 28%.
At the same time, the demand for renewable energy will grow from 6.8 million barrels per day (b / d) of oil equivalent (toe) in 2020 to 36.6 million barrels per day (bpd). And the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix will increase from 2.5% in 2020 to 10% or more in 2045. For comparison: the demand for oil over the same period will increase from 82.5 million barrels per day. up to 99 million bpd NS.
Global demand for oil will recover and reach 104.4 million bpd over the next five years, but after 2026, the rate of oil consumption will begin to slow down due to developed countries. Demand will stop growing and stabilize after 2035, the long-term forecast says.
During 2019-2026, oil demand will increase by 13.8 million bpd, OPEC expects. At the same time, the lion’s share of this acceleration (80%) will occur in 2021-2023, when the world will catch up with consumption after long lockdowns, the report notes. And in general, in the period up to 2045, the demand for oil will grow against the 2020 base by 17.6 million b / d – from 90.6 million b / d to 108.2 million b / d.
According to OPEC calculations, the growth in demand during the first five years of the forecast will average 2.6 million bpd, OPEC writes. After 2026, it will slow down to 0.6 million bpd on average, and during 2030-2035, even down to 0.3 million bpd. “After this period, forecasts show no growth, which indicates stabilization of demand for a relatively long period,” – the report concludes.
At the same time, the dynamics of demand for oil in different countries of the world after 2023 will look different and even multidirectional against the background of decarbonization of economies, warn in OPEC. Consumption growth will now be provided only by developing countries, the report says.
The trend for the opposite behavior in oil consumption is already being realized in the medium term, OPEC experts write. And over time, it will only get stronger, they believe. So, according to their calculations, the demand for oil in the OECD countries will reach its peak of 46.6 million b / d in 2023, and then will slowly begin to decline to 34 million b / d by 2045.
And, on the contrary, developing economies, against the background of population growth and an increase in the share of the middle class, will demonstrate an increase in oil consumption by 25.5 million b / d, to 74.1 million b / d by 2045, according to the OPEC forecast. Overall, global demand over this period will increase by 17.6 million bpd to 108.2 million bpd by 2045.
The global car park will almost double by 2045, to 2.6 billion units, but the share of electric transport in it will increase to 20%, follows from the forecast. The number of electric vehicles will reach 500 million by 2045.
“Long-term growth in oil demand will be limited by the increasing penetration of electric transport into the lives of consumers,” OPEC experts write. Therefore, the demand for oil in the transport segment will stably stay in the corridor of 46-46.5 million barrels per day until 2045, OPEC believes.
At the same time, cars with an internal combustion engine will continue to occupy a large share – 76%, which will be mainly provided by demand from developing countries.
The transition to electric motors is happening at a faster pace than predicted in last year’s report, the report noted. It also notes that the crisis caused by the pandemic has not greatly affected the electric car market.
A massive shift to electric vehicles will lead to an increase in energy consumption, but at the expense of alternative energy sources.
“This will hit the share of oil in the energy balance,” the report says. At the same time, OPEC experts add that the trend will affect not only the transport sector, but also industry, housing and communal services and generation.
Russia will stabilize production after 2026
Russia in the period until 2026 can increase oil and gas condensate production from 10.6 million b / d to 11.5 million b / d against the background of the launch of new projects and the end of restrictions in OPEC +, follows from the long-term forecast.
“After 2026, a long plateau of production is predicted, but by 2045, production will begin to decline,” the OPEC forecast says.
US to slow production after 2030
The United States will begin to actively recover oil production from 2022 until reaching a production peak by 2030. Other countries, like the United States, which are not members of OPEC, will begin to reduce oil production after 2030. This will lead to an increase in the share of OPEC countries in world production, follows from the long-term forecast.
OPEC expects that the favorable price environment will force American oil producers to restore production, which has been frozen due to the consequences of the pandemic. Production in the United States will grow from 11.5 million bpd in 2020 to 14.8 million bpd in 2026, according to the OPEC forecast. I can reach the peak production of 15.2 million b / d by the end of the 2020s. At the same time, the total production of liquid hydrocarbons by this time may increase to 20.5 million bpd.
Other non-OPEC countries will also reach peak production by 2030 – at 71 million bpd, OPEC expects. By 2045, this figure has already dropped to 65.5 million bpd. In contrast, OPEC production will increase from 35.7 million b / d in 2030 to 42.7 million b / d in 2045. OPEC’s share of the global oil market will increase from 33% to 39% by 2045.

Leave a Comment