Consumer Price Index for all items rises 0.8% in November

Consumer Price Index for all items rises 0.8% in November

F.P. Report

WASHINGTON: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was the result of broad increases in most component indexes, similar to last month. The indexes for gasoline, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles were among the larger contributors. The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November as the gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major energy component indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.7 percent as the index for food at home rose 0.8 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November following a 0.6-percent increase in October. Along with shelter, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, and airline fares were among those that increased. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, recreation, and communication all declined in November.

The all items index rose 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index rose 33.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.1 percent. These changes are the largest 12-month increases in at least 13 years in the respective series.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average

                                  Seasonally adjusted changes from

                                          preceding month

                                                                          Un-

                                                                       adjusted

                                                                        12-mos.

                              May   June  July  Aug.  Sep.  Oct.  Nov.   ended

                              2021  2021  2021  2021  2021  2021  2021   Nov.

                                                                         2021

 All items………………    .6    .9    .5    .3    .4    .9    .8      6.8

  Food………………….    .4    .8    .7    .4    .9    .9    .7      6.1

   Food at home………….    .4    .8    .7    .4   1.2   1.0    .8      6.4

   Food away from home (1)..    .6    .7    .8    .4    .5    .8    .6      5.8

  Energy………………..    .0   1.5   1.6   2.0   1.3   4.8   3.5     33.3

   Energy commodities…….   -.6   2.6   2.3   2.7   1.3   6.2   5.9     57.5

    Gasoline (all types)….   -.7   2.5   2.4   2.8   1.2   6.1   6.1     58.1

    Fuel oil (1)…………   2.1   2.9    .6  -2.1   3.9  12.3   3.5     59.3

   Energy services……….    .7    .2    .8   1.1   1.2   3.0    .3     10.7

    Electricity………….    .3   -.3    .4   1.0    .8   1.8    .3      6.5

    Utility (piped) gas

       service…………..   1.7   1.7   2.2   1.6   2.7   6.6    .6     25.1

  All items less food and

     energy……………..    .7    .9    .3    .1    .2    .6    .5      4.9

   Commodities less food and

      energy commodities….   1.8   2.2    .5    .3    .2   1.0    .9      9.4

    New vehicles…………   1.6   2.0   1.7   1.2   1.3   1.4   1.1     11.1

    Used cars and trucks….   7.3  10.5    .2  -1.5   -.7   2.5   2.5     31.4

    Apparel……………..   1.2    .7    .0    .4  -1.1    .0   1.3      5.0

    Medical care

       commodities (1)……    .0   -.4    .2   -.2    .3    .6    .1       .2

   Services less energy

      services…………..    .4    .4    .3    .0    .2    .4    .4      3.4

    Shelter……………..    .3    .5    .4    .2    .4    .5    .5      3.8

    Transportation services    1.5   1.5  -1.1  -2.3   -.5    .4    .7      3.9

    Medical care services…   -.1    .0    .3    .3   -.1    .5    .3      2.1

   1 Not seasonally adjusted.

Food

The food index increased 0.7 percent in November after rising 0.9 percent in both September and October. The food at home index increased 0.8 percent in November as all six major grocery store food group indexes rose; this was the third consecutive month that all six increased. The indexes for other food at home and for fruits and vegetables both increased 1.0 percent in November. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.9 percent in November. Within this group, the index for pork rose sharply, increasing 2.2 percent, while the index for eggs declined in November, falling 2.7 percent.

The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.8 percent in November after larger increases in September and October. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.2 percent over the month, the same increase as the prior month. The index for nonalcoholic beverages also rose 0.2 percent, its smallest monthly increase in the last 6 months. 

The food away from home index rose 0.6 percent in November following a 0.8-percent increase the prior month. The index for limited service meals continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.0 percent over the month, while the index for full service meals rose 0.4 percent in November. 

The food at home index rose 6.4 percent over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 2008. All of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 12.8 percent, with the index for beef rising 20.9 percent. The index for dairy and related products posted the smallest increase, rising 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. The remaining major grocery store food group indexes posted increases ranging from 4.0 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 5.7 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 5.8 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending January 1982. The index for limited service meals rose 7.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 6.0 percent. The index for food at employee sites and schools, in contrast, declined 44.9 percent over the past 12 months.

Energy

The energy index rose 3.5 percent in November after rising 4.8 percent in October.

The gasoline index rose 6.1 percent in November, the same increase as the prior month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 2.8 percent in November.)

The electricity index increased 0.3 percent in November after rising 1.8 percent in October. The index for natural gas rose 0.6 percent in November following a 6.6-percent increase the prior month. 

The energy index rose 33.3 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy component indexes increasing sharply. The gasoline index rose 58.1 percent over the last year, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980. The index for natural gas rose 25.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the electricity index rose 6.5 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November. The shelter index increased 0.5 percent over the month, as the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent; these increases were the same as in October. The index for lodging away from home rose 2.9 percent in November after rising 1.4 percent in October. Vehicle indexes also continued to rise in November.

The index for used cars and trucks rose 2.5 percent over the month, the same increase as in October. The index for new vehicles rose 1.1 percent in November after a 1.4-percent increase in October.

The index for household furnishings and operations increased in November, rising 0.8 percent, the same increase as in October. The apparel index rose 1.3 percent in November after being unchanged in October. The index for airline fares turned up in November, rising 4.7 percent after declining in recent months.

The medical care index also rose in November, increasing 0.2 percent after rising 0.5 percent in October. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.4 percent, and the index for prescription drugs increased 0.3 percent, while the index for hospital services declined 0.3 percent.

A few indexes declined in November. The motor vehicle insurance index fell 0.8 percent over the month after being unchanged in October. The recreation index fell 0.2 percent in November after rising in each of the last 9 months. The index for communication also declined 0.2 percent in November.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.9 percent over the past 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1991. The index for used cars and trucks rose 31.4 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for new vehicles rose 11.1 percent. The shelter index rose 3.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 2007. The index for medical care increased 1.7 percent over the last year.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 6.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 277.948 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 273.042 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index rose 0.5 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. 

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 6.7 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.5 percenton a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

_______________

The Consumer Price Index for December 2021 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday,

January 12, 2022 at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on November 2021 Consumer Price Index Data

 Data collection by personal visit for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) program has been suspended almost entirely since March 16, 2020. When possible, data normally collected by personal visit were collected either online or by phone. Additionally, data collection in November was affected by the temporary closing or limited operations of certain types of establishments. These factors

 resulted in an increase in the number of prices considered temporarily unavailable and imputed.

 While the CPI program attempted to collect as much data as possible, many indexes are based on smaller amounts of collected prices than usual, and a small number of indexes that are normally published were not published this month. Additional information is available at www.bls.gov/covid19/effects-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-consumer-price-index.htm.

 Technical Note

Brief Explanation of the CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the totalU.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urbanor metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor,the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan area, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, andthose in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflationfor all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than one-half of the household’s income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of the household’s earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.

The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s trained representatives.

In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to three subsequent quarterly revisions.

The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the

CPI-U and the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.  An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.

Sampling Error in the CPI

The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.

Calculating Index Changes

Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:

                               Item A                  Item B                      Item C

Year I                         112.500                 225.000                     110.000

Year II                        121.500                 243.000                     128.000

Change in index points         9.000                   18.000                      18.000

Percent change                 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0  18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0   18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4

Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.

Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2021.xlsx. For more information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and

the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment Methodological Changes at www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.

For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.

Intervention Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some

CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.

For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009 return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008.

Retaining this outlier data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this “prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.

For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2021, BLS adjusted 72 series using intervention analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity, and vehicles.

Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes

Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. For January 2021, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2016 to 2020 were calculated and published.

For series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2020 will be applied to data for 2021 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2021 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.

Determining Seasonal Status

Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from “not seasonally adjusted” to “seasonally adjusted”, or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Thirty-four of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2021.

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